Projecting March Madness, Part 6

It's time for the last March Madness projections. I've enjoyed projecting the field for the past month. It's been challenging, but fun. Today I thought I would do something different. Instead of trying to project which teams will make the tournament from their conferences, I will project the seeding for the NCAA tournament.

Now remember there are conference tournaments taking place at this moment for the mid-majors. So these projections can change. The Mid-Majors who make the field today have either won the regular season conference title or have a good enough RPI to make the field regardless. On with the projections.

Number 1 Seeds
Midwest- Kansas
West- Maryland
South- Syracuse
East- Kentucky

Breakdown: You're probably asking yourself, Mayland? A number one seed? I have Maryland at a number one seed because I don't agree with Joe Lunardi's choise or Rush the Court's choice. Lunardi has Kansas State as a number 1 seed. I can't make K-State a number 1 seed after losing to Kansas by 20. And Rush the Court had Duke as a number 1 seed, even though they lost to Maryland. I'm splitting the difference and making Maryland a number 1 seed. Maryland has won six straight games and they should make it seven on Saturday against Virginia. Maryland will at worst finish the season tied with Duke in the ACC. And I'm going out on the limb and say Maryland will win the ACC conference tournament and finally lock up that number 1 seed.



Number 2 Seeds- Villanova, Kansas State, Duke, Purdue

Breakdown- Even though Kansas State and Duke both lost this week they shouldn't slip past a number 2 seed in the tournament. Villanova's track record over the season and not just what has happened in recent weeks. Purdue is the team that will most likely slid in the field. They have already lost without key player Robbie Hummel and I don't expect them to win the Big Ten. They'll most likely end up with a 5 seed in the tournament, but for now their a two seed.

Number 3 Seeds- Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Vanderbilt, Ohio State

Breakdown- Pittsburgh has been a surprise team all year. The Panthers lost 4 starters from last year's Elite 8 team and have rebuilt on the fly. Ohio State goes where Evan Turner takes them. If he has to miss time for injury, like he did at the beginning of the year, then Ohio State is one-and-done.

Number 4 Seeds- Tennessee, Michigan State, Temple, BYU

Breakdown- Tennessee and Michigan State are on more shaky ground than Temple and BYU. Tennessee could fall if they make a quick exit in the SEC Tournament. Michigan State could rise if they win the Big Ten Tournament. Temple and BYU will really not fall or rise from the fourth spot. If both teams win their conference tournaments then they should stay at the fourth seed, but if they lose they shouldn't fall no further than sixth.



Number 5 Seeds- Gonzaga, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Georgetown

Breakdown- Gonzaga wins the WCC then their a fifth seed, but lose and they drop down to the eighth. Lunardi had New Mexico as a two seed, I can't do that. Yes they have a nice RPI, but I expect them to lose the Mountain West tournament. Wisconsin and Georgetown have been consistent but not spectacular. They will have to play well in their conference tournaments to rise.
Number 6 Seeds- Butler, Baylor, Texas A&M, Xavier

Breakdown- Butler has to win the Horizon League tournament. Butler lost the tournament championship last season and dropped in seeding. Texas A&M is the team that could slid up the seeding. Texas A&M have won 7 out of 9 games and one of those losses was against Kansas. If Texas A&M has a big tournament, then they could slip up to the fourth seed.

Number 7 Seeds- Texas, Richmond, UNLV, Missouri

Breakdown- Missouri has helped their seeding chances by beating up the cupcakes of the Big XII. Missouri is the team that will need a big conference tournament. An early exit and their a 12th seed, a conference tournament championship game appearance and then they could move up to the fifth seed. Texas also has the capability to slide or climb the seeding.



Number 8 Seeds- Florida State, Marquette, Clemson, Oklahoma State

Breakdown- Marquette has been the biggest riser in recent weeks. The Golden Eagles have won nine out of ten games. They could easily end up as a fifth seed. Clemson is also a team on the rise. The Tigers haven't had their normal late season slide. Oklahoma State staked their place in the tournament with a win over Kansas.

Number 9 Seeds- Louisville, California, Wake Forest, Northern Iowa

Breakdown- The Pac-10 can't even get a team higher than a ninth seed. And they don't deserve one. California has been one of the biggest inconsistent teams in the nation and still managed to win their conference. That tells you how bad the Pac-10 has been this year.



Number 10 Seeds- Old Dominion, Illinois, UTEP, Georgie Tech

Breakdown- Georgia Tech is quickly sliding down in the tournament. Five losses in eight games will do that to you. Illinois is also on the bubble that is ready to burst. Illinois will have to have a big conference tournament to even make the field. UTEP and Old Dominion are possible upset fodder in the tournament.

Number 11 Seeds- Virginia Tech, Florida, Notre Dame, Saint Mary's

Breakdown- The Irish now boast a winning Big East record and three wins versus top-25 RPI teams. Saint Mary's makes the tournament this year based on only losing five games this year and three of those losses came against Vanderbilt and Gonzaga.

The Rest of the Teams- Siena, UConn, Utah State, Cornell, Murray State, Rhode Island, San Diego State, Kent State, Wofford, Oakland, Weber State, Sam Houston, Coastal Carolina, UC Santa Barbara, Troy, Morgan State, Stoney Brook, Jacksonville, Quinnpiac, Play In Game

Thanks for joining me on these projections over the past five weeks.