Baseball Update: Learning Sabermetrics, Part 3

Here's Part 1 and Part 2 of the Learning Sabermetrics series.

Yesterday, I left off looking at the value of players through VORP and WAR rankings. Today I'll look at UZR, BABIP, and FIP.

UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating)
Goal: Split the baseball field into the 78 zones and you calculate 64 of the zones. It's really easy. (Note: This is actually a really complicated stat explained by Alex Remington.)

Translation: This stat will determine if a fielder is truly good or not. UZR determines a players efficiency from his cost/saved total versus what it should have been. Here's FanGraph's explanation of UZR "The number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined."

My Take: UZR basically looks at a players defensive impact on his team. While the number can fluctuate from year to year, you can take sample sizes to determine if a player was effective in the field by the way he personally doesn't allow runs to score.

If you used this sample size, you will see that Placido Polanco was actually a better fielder than Pedro Feliz. When the Phillies let Feliz go and signed Polanco, the general consensus was that the Phillies were letting the better fielder go. Not necessarily true if you look at the UZR numbers.

Feliz's best UZR numbers came when he was in San Francisco. In his couple years in Philadelphia, his numbers where in the 4.5 to 7 range. Polanco on the other hand had his best UZR year last season with an 11.4. What this shows is that while Feliz's field production has slipped in the last couple of years, Polanco's has been getting better. Polanco saved the Tigers last year from 11 runs. Again UZR fluctuates from year to year but this small sample size suggests the Phillies made the right move in no re-signing Feliz and signing Polanco.

FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
Goal: Eliminate everything a pitcher can't control (defense, park effects, bloop singles, etc.) and concentrate on the stuff he can control (strikeouts, walks, home runs, etc.).

Translation: Way more effective than ERA because it looks at factors that a pitcher controls. Like ERA, a pitcher wants a FIP number somewhere in the 3.00 range.

My Take: The greatest thing about FIP is that it uses the same scale as ERA, so you know when you see someone with a 2.34 FIP, their really good. I also like it because it gives a better reflection of how worthy a pitcher is and better yet a great indicator for the future of that pitcher.

Take Brett Anderson for example. The A's young left hander has improved his FIP numbers over the last two years. Everything points to Anderson having a better season this year. And so far, Brett Anderson has had a great season.

Tim Lincecum is my favorite. Lincecum has already won two Cy Young's and his FIP numbers suggest he's only getting better. In 2008 when Lincecum won his first Cy Young, his FIP was 2.62. Last year when Lincecum won his second CY Young, his FIP was 2.34. That is a 0.28 drop in his FIP number. Everything points to Lincecum having a better season this year, than the previous two. So far Lincecum's FIP is 1.29 on the year. A full 1.15 drop in his FIP number. So what this says is that Lincecum this year will have more control over the game than last year. And now you see why I like FIP.

BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play)
Goal: Exactly what it sounds like -- a player's batting average on the balls he puts into play. Here's the formula (hits - homers) / (at-bats - K's - HR + sac-flies).

Translation: BABIP tells us how many hits a player is getting — or a pitcher is giving up — when the ball is put in play. Basically BABIP tells whether or not a hitter or pitcher had good luck or bad luck. In this case, "put in play" means the ball stays fair and in the ballpark, rather than the play resulting in a strikeout, walk, home run, hit by pitch or error.

My Take: Like FIP, BABIP uses the same scale as batting average and ERA so it's easy to understand when your looking at BABIP on FanGraphs. I also like it because it really does tell what player is lucky or not.

Jarrod Washburn and David Wright lead the Majors last season in BABIP. And if your David Wright last season, you needed a little luck. As everyone says, you need a little luck every once in a while.

In all honesty, I find this stat a little ridiculous to judge a hitter by, but love it for pitchers. Pitchers have high control over strikeouts, home runs, and walks, but no control over over balls in play. If a ball stays in play, the only things determining whether it will fall for a hit or turn into an out are the defense and random chance.

In the end, BABIP is not a determinant of a player's success, rather than a tool to measure what is going on. It only measures what a hitter and pitcher have no control over. Either way, it's a fun stat to keep track of.

Part 4 drops tomorrow.