April 13, 2010

Baseball Update: Learning Sabermetrics, Part 2

If you missed the first part of Learning Sabermetrics click here.

Yesterday I looked at two of the most simple Sabermetric stats OBP and WHIP. Today I'll look at the more sophisticated sabermetric stats.

OPS (On-Base Percentage plus Slugging Percentage) Goal: Capture a players ability to get on base and also hit for power in a simple way to compare players with each other.

Translation: This stat is much better than batting average, especially if your Albert Pujols.

My Take: This is by far one of the most flawed stats there is, but at the same time very effective to judge power hitters. This stat judges how patient a power hitter is at the plate. The goal of baseball on offense is not making outs. And you especially don't want your cleanup hitters to be making a ton of outs.

Last year's MVP's Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols each had a OPS over 1.000! No wonder those guys are seen as the best hitters in baseball. They can both hit for power while being patient at the plate. An average player should have an OPS over .700 unless they steal a ton of bases.

VORP (Value Over Replacement Player)
Goal: VORP attempts to calculate the number of runs a player is contributing above what a replacement-level player at the same position would if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.

Translation: Can an average Triple-A player have the same production as an 8 million dollar man at the same position with the same number of at-bats or pitches.

My Take: This stat used to be an offensive stat only, but in the past couple of years it's also used for pitchers. The one problem with this stat is that it doesn't incorporate defense. I love this stat for several reasons.

1. While it's hard to calculate, it's easy to understand. Albert Pujols led baseball last season with a 98.3 VORP, meaning he drove in 98 more runs than an average major league player could. Ronny Cedeno lead the league with the worst VORP of -15.3, meaning an average player could have averaged 15 more runs than Cedeno.

2. It takes durability into account. A player must average over 100 games to be eligible for VORP. A player is only valuable to a club if he plays everyday.

3. This is the closest baseball stat to the +/- stat in Hockey. +/- in hockey is the goal differential when a specific player is on the ice. VORP is used to differentiate how effective a specific baseball is when he is playing compared to a replacement player.

WAR (Wins Above Replacement) Goal: It's the same as VORP
Goal: WAR takes VORP to the next level and also incorporates defense, then figures out how many wins a player is worth.

Translation: WAR figures out how many wins a player is worth to his team.

My Take: I like WAR because you get a sense of how valuable a certain player is too a team. We all know guys like Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Tim Lincecum, and Joe Mauer are immensely important to their teams. What you don't know is how important Franklin Gutierrez, Shin-Soo Choo, and Josh Johnson are to their teams? You get a mental picture of how important some players are to their teams in wins. That a player could have a five game swing on how well a team preforms.

I wasn't a big fan of the Aubrey Huff signing by the Giants. I thought, here we go again. The Giants have signed another aging slugger who is past his prime. I never looked up the fact that Huff's career WAR rating is 16.3 (16 wins). When healthy, Huff can be a very effective player especially in games like last night when he reached based four times scored three runs and drove in another run. That was a very effective night from Huff. So that's why I like WAR, it gives a different perspective on how a player can effect a team when he's playing.

Part 3 drops tomorrow.

2 comments:

  1. That's why I like the Ibanez signing last year for the Phillies. He has a solid WAR rating and it showed last year.

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  2. Thanks for doing this series, Keith. This is the simplest I have ever seen sabrematrics broken down and I am finally starting to understand them and the different ones that are constantly brought up on blogs everywhere.

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