NCAA Tournament Thoughts

(Once again a reminder that we'll live blog the entire NCAA tournament starting Tuesday with the First Four games.)

Confession: I love holding the bracket in my hands and looking over the first second round match ups and the potential sweet 16 and elite 8 match ups. I've had this obsession since I was a kid when I would cut out the bracket out of the local paper. Now I just go to a website and print out the bracket. I like doing this because I feel like I get a better grasp of what I'm reading if it's on paper compared to a TV or computer screen.

Another confession I must make is that I haven't followed college basketball as faithfully this season. With all the scandals, conference realignment, and arguments about if college players should be paid has took a toll on me. And all this conversation hit during the football season that left a black mark on me for the basketball season. So I basically didn't watch a ton of college basketball this year because I sorta lost my passion for college sports.

So the past 48 hours I've been trying to catch back up in college basketball. I watched conference tournaments, read tournament preview columns, and listened to the "experts" on ESPN and CBS. Here our my thoughts on the 2012 NCAA Tournament.

Trendy Picks: With more and more mid-majors reaching the elite 8 and final four in recent years, trendy mid-major picks by columnists and analysis have become more prevalent. You're going to hear about how person X really likes Murray State to advance to the elite 8. Here's the truth though, we have no clue what mid-major will advance.

The tournament is a complete crapshoot and the mid-major that usually advances the furthest usually has a player that will be drafted in the NBA lottery or has a deep team full of senior players. Also matchups matter. Richmond made it to the sweet 16 last year because they beat an usually overrated Vanderbilt and a Morehead State team that upset Louisville in the first round. So when making picks look at potential matchups before deciding what mid-major can go on a run.


And by looking at the bracket I do like Murray State. They're playing defacto home games in Louisville the first weekend. They should be able to get past Colorado State in the 2nd round and play Marquette in the 3rd round. Height will be a problem for Murray State, but that shouldn't be a problem against Marquette. From there Murray State with either play Florida or Missouri. I don't think Murray State could beat Missouri, but I wouldn't be surprised if they beat Florida if they're matched up with them. And thus that's how you get a mid-major all the way to the elite 8. It's about potential matchups.

Sorry, but I'm not buying the South bracket is the toughest bracket: This morning I've been hearing about how tough of road Kentucky has to the Final Four. Sorry, but I'm not buying it. Everyone this morning is talking about a potential Kentucky-UConn 3rd round game, but from the little college basketball I watched this year I do know UConn is a fraud. I don't even think it's a guarantee UConn will get past Iowa State. Then you look at the rest of the bracket and who is really standing in their way? Indiana is injured, Baylor is a fraud in my opinion. Duke could possibly beat UK, but I doubt it. UK should have a pretty easy path to the Final Four.

The West Bracket Is The Toughest: I can't help but looking at the West bracket and thinking it's the toughest bracket. Michigan State, New Mexico, Memphis, Murray State, Marquette, Florida, and Missouri are all in this bracket. You could make a case for any of these teams to reach the final four. This is definitely the bracket I most look forward to watching.

Everyone is buying Florida State: After the selection show last night I turned off the TV, printed out a bracket, and picked Florida State to reach the Final Four. They had just beat UNC for the ACC tournament championship and had already beat Duke twice this year. The East bracket doesn't exactly appear to be a great bracket so why not choose Florida State as a Final Four team? I turned on ESPN this morning and it looks like everyone is riding the Florida State tidal wave. It always scares me when it appears everyone starts hitching their wagons to an upstart team like Florida State. That being said, I'm still going to stick with the Seminoles to make it to the final four in my bracket.

2nd Round Games I Look Forward To Watching:
Wichita State vs VCU, Memphis vs St. Louis, New Mexico vs Long Beach State, Louisville vs Davidson, Vanderbilt vs Harvard, Gonzaga vs West Virginia, Temple vs potentially Cal, Michigan vs Ohio, Georgetown vs Belmont, St. Mary's vs Purdue

Final Four Picks: Kentucky, Missouri, Kansas, Florida State

National Championship Game: Kentucky vs Kansas

National Champion: Kentucky