RPI and Strength of Schedule are taken into effect for this projection.Selection Sunday is a little more than three weeks away and the Pac-10 has the possibility of only getting one team into the tournament. If Cal wins the Pac-10 tournament, I seriously doubt another Pac-10 team will reach the tournament.
It also makes me sad to say that St. Mary's bubble has busted because of their inability to beat Gonzaga. St. Mary's has lost to Gonzaga twice this year and then lost on the road to Portland. S0 far St. Mary's best wins have come against Utah State, Northeastern, and San Diego State. St. Mary's has to win their conference tournament now if they want to make it to the tournament.
Number 1 Seeds:
Midwest- Kansas
South- Kentucky
West- Syracuse
East- Duke
ACC (7): Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson
Breakdown: Virginia Tech is in the tournament after a win against Wake Forest this week to go along with eight wins in the last nine games. Virginia Tech has also improved their RPI to 49. Virginia has lost four games in a row and will have to win at least three out of their next five games, including games with Maryland and Duke.
Atlantic-10 (6): Xavier, Temple, Rhode Island, Dayton, Charlotte, Richmond
Breakdown: No conference has been helped out more by the Pac-10's decline than the Atlantic-10. It would be a record for the Atlantic-10 if six teams from the conference earn bids to the tournament. Also none of the Atlantic-10 teams have an RPI lower than 42. Who knew the Atlantic-10 could be so entertaining?
Big East (8): Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, Louisville, Cincinnati
Breakdown: Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, and Georgetown are all guaranteed to make the tournament. It's the last few spots that will be fought over. Louisville has beaten Syracuse and Notre Dame in the past week and face DePaul on Saturday. With these wins, Louisville has improved their RPI to 30 which is good enough to make the tournament. Marquette should make the tournament after winning five consecutive games. Leaving UConn and Cincinnati to battle for the last spot. Monday's win over Nova definitely helped UConn, but they are still very inconsistent and have a tough stretch of games to finish out the season.
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Breakdown: Even though Illinois has beaten Michigan State and Wisconsin in the past ten days, they still only have an RPI of 71. Illinois plays Purdue on Saturday and will have played the Big Ten's top four teams in a two week period. I hate to be cliched, but Saturday's game against Purdue is a must win for Illinois. In any other Big Ten team will have to win the conference championship to make it to the tournament.
Big XII (7): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Baylor, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Missouri
Breakdown: The Big XII can finish with eight teams in the tournament if Texas Tech finishes strong down the stretch. Tech has a solid RPI of 38 and if they can win two out of three games against Baylor, Texas, and Kansas State then they can make the Big XII a eight team conference in the tournament. Of course, Oklahoma State and Missouri must also finish strong down the stretch.
Conference USA (2): UTEP, UAB
Breakdown: UTEP right now has a game and a half lead over Memphis in the conference. Meanwhile UAB has lost three of their last four games while their RPI continues to slide. Right now UAB is in the tournament, but their margin of error is very slim. They have to beat either UTEP or Memphis in their remaining games to remain in the tournament.
Mountain West (3): UNLV, New Mexico, BYU
Breakdown: Despite having an RPI of 41, San Diego State doesn't have a win over a top 50 RPI opponent. San Diego State will likely have to win their final five games including a game against BYU.
SEC (5): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Florida, Ole Miss
Breakdown: Mississippi State's loss to Kentucky and 6-5 conference record will prevent them from going to the tournament. Of course Ole Miss and Florida have also stumbled down the stretch, possibly leaving the SEC as a three bid conference. So, when does spring football start in the SEC?
One-Bid Conferences:
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Mid-American: Kent State
Mid-Eastern: Morgan State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Pac-10: California
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: College of Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
Summit: Oakland
Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State
SWAC: Jackson State
Western Athletic: Utah State
West Coast: Gonzaga
Who knew the Atlantic-10 could be so entertaining?
ReplyDeleteOoh! Ooh! Me! I did! I did! ;-)
First of all any conference with 3 Big 5 teams is always gonna be a damn good conference (even if only Temple is going dancing. I must say though that I am glad that people in general outside of the A-10 area are finally seeing and are seeing how good this conference really is. The only real aberration of this conference this year is a weak Pac-10 and a weak Big 10 are going to bump the A-10 teams into the Big Dance.
Obviously they are not a 1-seed now, but I have a strong feeling Nova will be right up there come tourney time.