(Part 1)With North Carolina's loss last night to go along with a 2-5 conference record, there is a real possibility that two of last year's Final 4 teams could miss the NCAA tournament. That other team is UConn who has lost three straight games since beating number 1 Texas. Could Ron Franklin call his last college basketball game with UConn playing against UNC in Madison Square Garden?
Also the Pac-10 only get's one team this week. There are four teams tied for first in the Pac-10 and they all have conference records of 6-4 and no one has a better overall record than 16-7 which belongs to Arizona State. So the Pac-10 only gets one team in the tournament this year. On the plus side though, Arizona seems to be improving under Sean Miller. The Pac-10 needs Arizona to be competitive again to ever be taken seriously.
Here are the 1-bid leagues: America East, Atlantic Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Horizon League, Ivy League, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Northeast, Metro Valley, Ohio Valley, Pac-10 Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summitt, and Sun Belt. That’s 19 bids, and since two of these teams will be in the play-in game, that’s 18 teams out of 64, leaving 46 teams to round out the field.
RPI and Strength of Schedule(SOS) are used in this breakdown.
Number 1 seeds
Midwest- Kansas
West- Kentucky
South- Syracuse
East- Villanova
ACC (6)- Duke, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest, Maryland
Bubble Team: UNC
Breakdown: UNC is on the edge of the tournament. They have to beat Duke, Maryland, and Georgia Tech in upcoming games to even get back into the discussion about the NCAA tournament. Virginia is tied for second in the ACC with Maryland but only has an RPI of 88, so right now the Cavaliers are on the outside looking in despite a win in Chapel Hill. Virginia Tech is also on the outside looking in despite splitting the series with UNC.
Atlantic 10 (6): Temple, Xavier, Rhode Island, UNC-Charlotte, Dayton, Richmond
Bubble Team: Charlotte, Dayton, Richmond
Breakdown: Right now this is a six bid league, but they could all beat up on each other by the end of the year. So Charlotte, Dayton, Richmond are on the bubble right now. Dayton is most likely to make the tournament because their strength of schedule is better than Charlotte's and Richmond's. Dayton though has to pick up a win against Xavier this Saturday.
Big East (8): Villanova, Syracuse, West Virgina, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Seton Hall
Bubble Team: Seton Hall
Breakdown: Louisville beat UConn on Monday which was essentially an elimination game. Despite a 2-4 record in the last six games, Louisville has lost close games to Villanova, Pittsburgh and a controversial loss at West Virginia. A top 50 RPI is saving Seton Hall at this moment, but the Hall needs a win against Pittsburgh on Saturday to bolster their chances at making the tournament. South Florida could also sneak into the tournament. USF has won three straight games against Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, and Georgetown. If USF goes 5-3 in their last eight games, they would certainly pass Seton Hall in the Big East pecking order.
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Bubble Team: Illinois
Breakdown: Illinois faces the four teams in the tournament in consecutive games. If Illinois wants to make the tournament they have to win three out of the next four. Minnesota has had chances to make this a five team league, but has lost a close games against Minnesota and were blown out by 22-points to Ohio State.
Big 12 (7): Kansas, Texas, Baylor, Kansas State, Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Bubble Team: Oklahoma State, Texas A&M
Breakdown: Kansas has pretty much locked up another Big 12 title. Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State are pretty much locks as well. Missouri is teetering on the edge and A&M and OK State need a couple of more victories to make this a seven team league.
Colonial (2): Old Dominion, George Mason
Breakdown: George Mason has to win the league tournament. Old Dominion should get an at-large bid based on their RPI (45) and wins against Georgetown and Charlotte. A team besides Old Dominion has to win the league tournament if the Colonial wants to be a two team league.
Mountain West (3): BYU, UNLV, New Mexico
Breakdown: If San Diego State beats New Mexico in The Pitt on Saturday, this could turn into a four team league. This conference is clearly a four team conference between San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, and New Mexico.
SEC (5): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Mississippi State
Bubble Team: Florida
Breakdown: Florida is on the edge as of right now. If they can beat Miss State on Saturday they will dramatically improve their tournament chances. Mississippi State on the other hand is teetering on the edge of the bubble with with two losses in the past three games. Winning the SEC West will not be all what is needed for the Bulldogs to reach the tournament.
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Breakdown: With Gonzaga losing to San Francisco last week, that would make St. Mary's the conference leader. St. Mary's though can only lose to Gonzaga and no one else in league play if they want to make the West Coast a two team tournament league.
Missouri Valley (2): Northern Iowa, Wichita State
Breakdown: Down year for the Missouri Valley. Northern Iowa and Wichita State should be the only two teams that will make the tournament out of this conference.
One-bid leagues:
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Jacksonville
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: Pacific
Conference USA: UAB
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Mid-American: Kent State
Mid-Eastern: Morgan State
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Pac-10: California
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: College of Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
Summit: Oakland
Sun Belt: Arkansas State
SWAC: Jackson State
Western Athletic: Utah State
*For these posts now on, I will post videos of classic tournament moments.
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