(Part 1, Part 2)Strength of Schedule(SOS) and RPI are taken into these projections.
With three weeks in the season, the bubble is rapidity starting to shrink. Illinois took themselves off the bubble with a win over Michigan State and last night's road victory in Wisconsin. North Carolina in the meantime had their bubble burst in Maryland where they were thrashed by the Terrapins. I don't even think a win over Duke tonight can save UNC. Like always, it's going to be interesting down the stretch. Some teams are going to improve their tournament chances and some teams are going to fail. Should be a fun three weeks.
Number 1 Seeds
Midwest- Kansas
West- Villanova
South- Syracuse
East- Kentucky
ACC (7): Duke, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State, Virginia Tech
Breakdown: Virginia Tech has lifted themselves off the bubble with five victories in the last six games improving their RPI to 63. Clemson is once again faltering down the stretch with losses in four out of five games and UNC's tournament hopes are all about crushed after their RPI dropping to 80. Clemson though can improve their tournament chances with their last seven games against teams in the top 100 of the RPI.
Atlantic 10 (6): Temple, Xavier, Dayton, Rhode Island, Charlotte, Richmond
Breakdown: Don't laugh, but the A-10 could seriously get six teams into the tournament. Temple has the best tournament resume, but Charlotte is atop of the A-10 at the moment. Charlotte though has to play four teams of the above five in their remaining games and could easily slip back onto the bubble.
Big East (7): Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Marquette, South Florida
Breakdown: Nova, Syracuse, WVU, Pittsburgh, and Georgetown are automatically in. But the last two Big East teams to make the tournament could be a free for all. Marquette and South Florida are no locks. Louisville and Seton Hall could improve their chances of making the tournament with a strong finish. Cincinnati, UConn, and Notre Dame all have RPI's in the top 60. It's really going to be interesting watching seven teams killing each other for position in the Big East to improve their tournament chances.
Big Ten (5): Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State, Illinois
Breakdown: Illinois is in the tournament by winning five straight games including wins over Michigan State and last night's win over Wisconsin in Madison. If Illinois beats Ohio State on Saturday, then there in the tournament. The Big Ten though will probably not get a number one seed in the tournament, but the top four teams should at least get top 5 seeds in the tournament.
Big XII (6): Kansas, Kansas State, Texas, Missouri, Baylor, Texas A&M
Breakdown: Texas A&M and Oklahoma State are going into opposite directions and that's why A&M is in the tournament and OK State isn't. Oklahoma State has lost three straight games and still has games against Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. A&M on the other hand picked up a huge road win against Missouri and beat Baylor last Saturday. Both A&M and Ok State will also be fighting over that last spot in the Big XII and we could even see seven Big XII teams in the tournament.
Colonial (2): Northeastern, Old Dominion
Breakdown: Last week, George Mason was the conference leader. This week, Northeastern has the one game edge over Old Dominion in the conference. Old Dominion has an RPI of 35, so if either George Mason or Northeastern win the conference tournament, Old Dominion should still get into the tournament based on their resume.
SEC (5): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Florida, Ole Miss
Breakdown: Mississippi State has fallen on hard times and as of right now are on the outside looking in at the tournament. Mississippi State has lost four out of their last five games and has had it's RPI drop to 71. If Mississippi State doesn't beat Ole Miss tomorrow, then there is virtually no chance they make the tournament. South Carolina's RPI has fallen to 70 but they still have that victory over Kentucky in their back pocket. If they get a win over either Tennessee or Vanderbilt, then they dramatically improve their tournament chances.
West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's
Breakdown: St. Mary's can lock up a NCAA tournament bid with a win over Gonzaga tomorrow. St. Mary's has 20 wins on the season and doesn't have a real bad conference loss, but a loss again to Gonzaga and St. Mary's will once again will be on the outside of the tournament looking in.
Mountain West (3): BYU, New Mexico, UNLV
Breakdown: BYU, UNLV, and New Mexico shouldn't have to worry about their tourney chances. All three teams have solid resumes with RPI's in the top 30. San Diego State on the other hand remains on the wrong side of the bubble. SDST would have to go 7-0 for the remaining part of the year and would have to beat UNLV and BYU in those games. Enjoy the NIT again, Aztecs.
Conference USA (2): UTEP, UAB
Breakdown: Neither team has more than 2 conference losses. Tulsa is also on the edge of making the tournament. This could be the first year in a while, that Memphis will neither win the Conference USA or make the tournament.
America East: Stony Brook
Atlantic Sun: Belmont
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: Pacific
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Mid-American: Kent State
Mid-Eastern: Morgan State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Pac-10: California
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: College of Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston State
Summit: Oakland
Sun Belt: Arkansas State
SWAC: Jackson State
Western Athletic: Utah State
One team to keep an eye on in the Horizon is Cleveland State.
ReplyDeleteEven though the 02 NC game was one of the worst ever, I posted that video for you KT.
ReplyDelete@Keith Yes it was, but we won, so I don't really care. The best game of that tournament was the MD/UConn regional final, but sadly no one remembers it.
ReplyDeleteAnd I still cringe when I hear Nantz say "Juan shining moment."