Sweet 16 Preview: South

Location: Houston
Date: Friday, 3/27
Time: St. Mary’s/Baylor 7:27; Duke/Purdue 9:57
Announcers: Jim Nantz, Clark Kellog

1 Duke vs. 4 Purdue
Line: Duke -8 1/2
Duke Advantages: Size! Yes Duke has size and it affects how teams play. Even their guards Jon Scheyer and Nolan Smith have size. Then you have the Plumlee's and Brian Zoubek along with Kyle "Sweating Man" Singler.
Purdue's Advantages: Sadly Purdue is badly out-matched against Duke just like how Cal was last Sunday. JaJuan Johnson is their tallest player and he will have to battle Zoubek, Plumlee brothers and Lance Thomas. Now Purdue does play good defense, holding both Siena and Texas A&M to under 35% shooting in the first two games of the tournament. If Purdue can hold Duke to under 35%, then they'll have a chance to win.
Can Purdue Keep Going?: Everyone, including myself, wrote off Purdue after Robbie Hummel went down with the knee injury at the end of the season. Purdue has remade themselves on the fly since the end of the season. Chris Kramer has become a scoring threat. And Purdue's team defense can keep them in the Duke game. The question will be, can they keep going?
Pick, Duke: Despite the presence of Kramer and their overall team defense, no way Purdue has a chance to win this game. Duke has too much size and bench depth.



10 Saint Mary's vs. 3 Baylor
Line: Purdue -4 1/2
Saint Mary's Advantages: Omar Samhan/Mickey McConnell/Australians. While Baylor has the big's to contain Samhan, they don't have the players to contain Saint Mary's array of 3-point shooters in McConnell and Matthew Dellavedova and Ben Allen. And Saint Mary's has shot 42% from behind the arc in their last three games.
Baylor's Advantages: This is a quasi home game for Baylor. Their campus is only 186 miles away from Houston.
Match up to Watch: Omar Samhan vs. Baylor's twin tower. Baylor features two players Josh Lomers (7-foot) and Ekpe Udoh (6-foot-10) who can guard Samhan in the post. Udoh is the best athlete of the three and runs the floor better than Samhan. And Lomers is coming off his best game of the season against Old Dominion. Udoh and Lomers are the equalizers against Samhan.
Pick, Baylor: I've never liked teams that struggle in their 1st two games of the tournament. And Baylor struggled against both Sam Houston State and Old Dominion. If Saint Mary's can keep the game close while Allen, McConnel and Dellavedova are hot behind the arc, then this game will come down to the wire. I still like Baylor though to win. More talent and Udoh/Lomers to defend Samhan will be the difference.