With college football finally over and the majority of people finally starting to pay attention to college basketball, it's that time of the year to start guessing which teams will make the field of 64.We're going to assume the following leagues will only get on big: America East, America Sun, Big Sky, Big South, Big West, Colonial, Conference USA, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Missouri Valley (very unlikely, could get a 2nd team), Northeast, Metro Valley, Patriot, Southern, Southland, Southwestern, Summit, Sun Belt, and WAC. That's 20 automatic bids. Two of those teams partake in the play-in game, leaving 19 automatic bids leaving 45 other teams to compromise the field.
This of course can change from week to week. RPI and strength of schedule are factored into these selections. Compiling the teams by league is the easiest way of doing this. Their will be one bubble team per conference with my thoughts below each conference.
#1 Seeds
Midwest- Kentucky
East- Villanova
West- Syracuse
South- Kansas
ACC (7): Duke, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Maryland.
Bubble Team, Virginia Tech
Breakdown- UNC has a lower RPI than Virginia Tech but has better non-conference wins over Ohio State and Michigan State and a better strength of schedule. Plus a win over NC State in Raleigh saved UNC's season because NC State has already beat Duke at home. Virginia Tech will have a chance to make a name for themselves when UNC and Clemson visit Blacksburg.
Atlantic Ten (4): Xavier, Temple, Richmond, Dayton
Bubble Team: Rhode Island
Breakdown- The A-10 could easily get five maybe six teams in the tournament. Right now I have them with four teams with Rhode Island on the edge. Rhode Island has a nice wins over Providence, Boston College, and Oklahoma State but has only won once over a top 50 team. Also Charlotte and Richmond could fight for a sixth spot for this league. Charlotte would get the edge right now after their victory over Richmond.
Big East (9): Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, UConn, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Louisville
Bubble Team: St. John's
Breakdown- Just because the Big East is the deepest conference, doesn't necessarily mean it's the best conference. Teams can improve their RPI NCAA resume, while also getting their brains beat in. Right now I have nine Big East teams. St. John's is on the edge because of wins over Siena and Temple, but they must improve their conference record. Notre Dame's RPI is way too low to put on this list.
Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State.
Bubble Team: Minnesota, Northwestern, Illinois, Michigan
Breakdown- The Big Ten is underachieving this year despite big expectations. Mighigan state will once again be the class of the conference and could receive a 1 seed in the tournament, especially after impressive come-from-behind road wins at Minnesota and Michigan. Minnesota, Northwestern, and Illinois have RPI's between 56 and 79. Michigan is teetering on the edge and will most likely be headed to the NIT after last night's loss to Michigan State.
Big 12 (8): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri.
Bubble Team: Oklahoma
Breakdown- The Big 12 is by far the deepest conference this season. It's tough to win on the road, ask Texas, and every team has a chance to improve resume and RPI. By no means is Texas Tech, Missouri, Baylor, and Oklahoma State are locks for the tournament. Oklahoma is on the edge, but their inconsistent play has greatly hurt their chances.
Mountain West (2): BYU, New Mexico
Bubble Team: UNLV
Breakdown- BYU only has one loss this season and that was at Utah State. New Mexico gets the nod over UNLV because of a better RPI and because of wins over California, Texas Tech, and Texas A&M.
SEC (5): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi State.
Bubble Team: Florida
Breakdown- Despite a win over number one ranked Kentucky, South Carolina is still behind Florida as the bubble team. Florida has a better RPI and conference ranking. I really don't see this conference getting more than five teams and could easily only get four teams in the tournament.
Pac-10 (2): California and Washington
Bubble Team: None
Breakdown- The Pac-10 is absolutely dreadful this year. Cal's RPI saves them this year, so even if they don't win the conference, they should at least make the tournament. Washington is teetering on the edge and could easily not make the tournament. I wouldn't be surprised if this was a one team year for the Pac-10. Let's just move on.
WCC (2): Gonzaga and St. Marry's
Breakdown- Barring a collapse, Gonzaga makes the field. St. Marry's makes the field if they don't lose any league games besides a matchup with Gonzaga. St. Marry's RPI also should help them this year, unlike last year.
CAA (2): William & Marry and Old Dominion
Breakdown- Could two CAA teams really get two teams into the tournament? W&M has three wins over top 50 teams and Old Dominion has one win. I would be surprised that the Colonial would get two teams, but it's not unlikely.
American East: Maine
Atlantic Sun: Campbell
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: Pacific
Conference USA: UAB
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Mid-American: Central Michigan
Mid-Eastern: Morgan State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: College of Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston
Summit : Oakland
Sun Belt: Arkansas State
SWAC: Texas Southern
Western Athletic: Louisiana Tech
I don't think the Big East get's two #1 seeds. I think by Selection Sunday, there will be two Big XII #1 seeds.
ReplyDeleteWilliam & Mary isn't getting in unless they win the conference tournament. I know they've beaten Wake and Maryland, but they already have 3 conference losses.
ReplyDeleteI won't be around for the thrashing of Notre Dame, except for maybe the tail end.
ReplyDeleteI've got class from 6-7:15 and a meeting from 7:30-9. I am hopeful that the meeting won't run that long, but that is what we are scheduled for.