The good folks over at Niners Nation are flat out giddy for the start of the NFL season. I can't say I'm that giddy for the start of the NFL season. Maybe it's because it's still July and the Niners haven't even reported to camp yet? Maybe it's because the San Francisco Giants are in the middle of a pennant race and they have my attention at the moment? Maybe it's because the first Niners preseason game isn't until August 15th and their first regular season game isn't until September 12th? Maybe it's a combination of both? One thing I'm certain about, I'm not giddy about the 49ers season.
I'm not giddy about the Niners because everyone else is. The 49ers are expected to win the NFC West this year and that what scares me. Since 2006 the 49ers have expected to at least compete for a playoff spot but have ultimately fallen short. This year though everything sets up perfectly for the Niners. Kurt Warner retired (I don't know why this is a big deal. The Niners beat the Cardinals twice last season.) the Seahawks are transitioning to the Pete Carroll era and the Rams are rebuilding. The NFC West is basically up for the taking, but I'm still not confident in the Niners and here's why.
Alex Smith is still the QB: I don't care if Niners fans are confident in Smith or that Mike Silver wrote a glowing column on the QB, I still don't trust Alex Smith as the Quarterback. When healthy, Smith hasn't proven himself as a competent quarterback. He throws too many interceptions. Even last year when Smith look like a semi-competent quarterback he still threw into double teams and was intercepted 12 times last season in 11 1/2 games. For whatever reason though Niners fans are confident in Smith heading into the season.
I have a theory about why Niners fans are confident in Smith. They've been beaten down so much by Smith that they've talked themselves into Smith magically turning into Tom Brady. I'm on the opposite spectrum at the moment. There's too much evidence pointing to the opposite of Smith transforming into a great quarterback. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't trust Smith as our quarterback.
Questions Surrounding the Offensive Line: If Smith is going to transfer into he's going to need a strong offensive line in front of him. And at the moment, there are too many questions surrounding the Niners offensive line. The Niners are set at Center(Eric Heitmann) and Left Tackle (Joe Staley), but have issues at guard and right tackle. Do they start rookies Mike Iupati at guard and Anthony Davis at right tackle? Do they stick to David Baas, Chilo Rachal at guards and Adam Snyder at right tackle? This will be a big issue for the Niners going into the season. If the line can't protect Smith, then it won't even matter if Smith turns into a competent QB.
The Schedule: While the 49ers play four games against a weak AFC West, they still have a tough schedule. Hell their first three games will be a challenge. In week 1 and week 3 they travel to Seattle and Kansas City. I don't care if both Seattle or Kansas City are struggling at the moment, Quest Field and Arrowhead Stadium aren't easy places to play. The Niners first home game, week 2, is against the defending champions New Orleans Saints.
All that in the first three weeks and I haven't even gotten to the fact that the Niners play only 7 home games this season. Sorry I don't count the London game as a "home game" even though the Niners are the designated "home team." The Niners will also have to travel to the East Coast for games against Atlanta and Carolina and will have to travel to Green Bay for an early December game. Not exactly easy games. They also play a home game against Philadelphia never an easy game. The Niners may only have the 28th rated strength of schedule, it's still a tough road for a young team.
Offensive Weapons: Frank Gore and Vernon Davis are established offensive players, everyone after that though isn't. Backing up Gore will be Glen Coffee and Anthony Dixon. Dixon is a rookie and Coffee didn't exactly impress while filling in for an injured Gore last season. And what about the receivers? Josh Morgan while improving isn't close to being a number one receiver. There are huge expectations for Michael Crabtree, but I don't see him as anything else than a glorified possession receiver like Keyshawn Johnson. Once again I hope I'm wrong, but this is my gut feeling at the moment.
The Defense: While the Niners defense is solid, it isn't the greatest unit in the NFL. Patrick Willis is probably the best linebacker in the NFL and Takeo Spikes is solid as the other inside linebacker. The Niners are also solid at nose tackle (Aubrayo Franklin) and one defensive end spot (Justin Smith) but they don't have much depth on the line. Their secondary isn't exactly something to write home about. Nate Clements and Michael Lewis are becoming older and Dashon Goldson and Shawntae Spencer are reliable players but nothing spectacular. And like the defensive line, the secondary lacks depth. What happens if someone gets hurt? This defense isn't as good as some people think it will be.
As I've said, I hope I'm wrong. I hope Alex Smith develops into a Pro Bowl quarterback and the line develops and the schedule is as easy as it looks and the defense is as good as it's projected and Michael Crabtree continues his development. I just don't see that happening this season. So you can see why I'm not exactly giddy about the upcoming Niners season.
With all that said, I'll be happy if this team finishes with a 9-7 record. And knowing this division, a 9-7 record will probably be good enough to win the NFC West.
I'm not a big fan of NN. They're Smith fanboys and the posters get angry if you don't like Smith.
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